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What moves Pump.fun (PUMP)

As of October 12, 2026. This page describes drivers that already have a public record, and dates that are already on a calendar. It is not investment advice. It does not say to buy, sell, or hold, and it does not forecast a price.

What typically drives the price

A one-trillion cap, with one filing for the locked portion. PUMP is the token of Pump.fun, a Solana venue where people launch tokens. CoinGecko's markets response on October 12, 2026, 09:56 UTC, reported a maximum of 1,000,000,000,000 PUMP, circulating supply of about 463.0 billion, and total supply of about 828.5 billion.

A Blockworks token-transparency filing dated September 21, 2026 says the initial coin offering, 33% of the maximum, was fully unlocked at the July 12, 2025 launch. It says the team allocation of 20% and the existing-investor allocation of 13%, together 330,000,000,000 PUMP, were locked for 12 months from July 12, 2025 and then vest over three years to July 2029. The same filing says the first cliff released 82,500,000,000 PUMP on July 12, 2026, split as 50,000,000,000 to the team and 32,500,000,000 to existing investors, and that the linear vest then runs at 6,875,000,000 PUMP a month, with the first monthly tranche on August 12, 2026. It says Pump.fun has not published release schedules for the community, livestream, liquidity, ecosystem-fund, or foundation allocations.

BloFin, on October 9, 2026, said there is no first-party unlock calendar and that third-party trackers disagree. This page uses the filing's rate. It does not pick a third-party day in October as confirmed. Tokens becoming transferable are not a sale.

Activity on the venue. Days when the launch venue is busy, or when a fee or a product change is announced, are the usage headlines. They do not share the monthly vest. This page does not quote a live fee total.

Leverage. Perpetual markets can force liquidations that extend a move. Funding and open interest are not alert types until that feed is connected.

How much it usually moves

From October 13, 2025 through October 12, 2026, CoinGecko's daily USD series for pump-fun produced 364 close-to-close changes. The method is in README.md.

The median absolute move was 4.1%. The 90th percentile day was 10.7%. The price moved at least 5% on 150 days, at least 3% on 219 days, and at least 10% on 45 days. The largest close-to-close change in the window was 27.9%.

About 2 days in 5 cleared 5%. A fixed "5% up or down" rule fires on an ordinary day for PUMP. A month of the linear vest can pass inside a stretch that would have cleared 5% anyway. An unusual-move alert uses Pump.fun's own recent range.

A 5% move inside one hour is a different event from a 5% close-to-close day. This count does not measure the hourly case.

Example alerts

These are examples of wording. They are not recommendations, and they are not live prices. Terminal can run an unusual move, a percent move, a price level, or a volume spike. The note on an alert describes the move. It does not tell you what to do.

  1. Tell me when Pump.fun (PUMP) moves more than usual within an hour.
  2. Tell me when PUMP moves more than usual within 24 hours.
  3. Tell me when PUMP's volume is at least 3 times its 20-day average.

The monthly vest does not send the alert. The move does. An unusual-move alert waits 4 hours before it can fire again, unless you change that. A volume alert waits 1 hour by default.

Scheduled events as of October 12, 2026

Sources

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