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Terminal

Updated

What moves Wormhole (W)

As of October 12, 2026. This page describes drivers that already have a public record, and dates that are already on a calendar. It is not investment advice. It does not say to buy, sell, or hold, and it does not forecast a price.

What typically drives the price

A fixed cap, released on a schedule. W is Wormhole's token. The September 17, 2025 post states a maximum of 10,000,000,000 W and says the reward program does not add supply. The same post says annual cliffs were replaced by a release every two weeks, beginning October 3, 2025, for Guardian nodes (5.1%), community and launch (17%), ecosystem and incubation (31%), and strategic network participants (11.6%). The foundation treasury (23.3%) stays on its original daily four-year schedule. Core contributor tokens (12%) unlock toward the foundation every two weeks and stay under the original annual agreements. The token count of each two-week release was not on that post.

The post also says investors and Guardian validators stay aligned for an additional six months, until October 2028. It does not give a day in October. A reserve is described as coming soon. This page did not confirm a launch date for it.

CoinGecko's markets response on October 12, 2026, 09:56 UTC, reported circulating supply of about 6.60 billion against that 10 billion cap. The same response showed a 24-hour change of about +77.0%, and 24-hour volume of about 2.1 times the reported cap. That is one session.

Messaging across chains. Wormhole moves messages and tokens across chains. A new network, a new asset using its transfer standard, or an outage is the kind of headline that has lined up with attention on W. The price move is not the fee.

Leverage. Perpetual markets can force liquidations that extend a move. Funding and open interest are not alert types until that feed is connected.

How much it usually moves

From October 13, 2025 through October 12, 2026, CoinGecko's daily USD series for wormhole produced 364 close-to-close changes. The method is in README.md.

The median absolute move was 3.1%. The 90th percentile day was 9.1%. The price moved at least 5% on 105 days, at least 3% on 187 days, and at least 10% on 31 days. The largest close-to-close change in the window was 33.3%.

About 1 day in 3 cleared 5%. A fixed "5% up or down" rule fires on a week that was ordinary for W in this window. A two-week release, when one lands, is not the same event as a 5% day. An unusual-move alert uses Wormhole's own recent range.

A 5% move inside one hour is a different event from a 5% close-to-close day. This count does not measure the hourly case.

Example alerts

These are examples of wording. They are not recommendations, and they are not live prices. Terminal can run an unusual move, a percent move, a price level, or a volume spike. The note on an alert describes the move. It does not tell you what to do.

  1. Tell me when Wormhole (W) moves more than usual within an hour.
  2. Tell me when W moves more than usual within 24 hours.
  3. Tell me when W's volume is at least 3 times its 20-day average.

The two-week cadence does not send the alert. The move does. An unusual-move alert waits 4 hours before it can fire again, unless you change that. A volume alert waits 1 hour by default.

Scheduled events as of October 12, 2026

No single next release amount was confirmed from that post. Third-party calendars checked for this page did not agree with each other, so none of them is used as the amount.

Sources

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