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Terminal

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What moves Filecoin (FIL)

As of October 12, 2026. This page describes drivers that already have a public record, and dates that are already on a calendar. It is not investment advice. It does not say to buy, sell, or hold, and it does not forecast a price.

What typically drives the price

Two minting streams, and a vesting clock that is finishing. Filecoin's docs cap FIL at 2 billion. Up to 770 million FIL is baseline minting, tied to how much storage the network proves. Another 330 million FIL is simple minting, on a six-year half-life, with the docs saying 97% of that stream is projected over about 30 years. A further 300 million FIL sits in a mining reserve for later mining models. Those streams are not a one-day event. Block rewards also vest: the docs say 75% of a miner's block reward vests over 180 days, and 25% is available immediately.

A separate clock is the genesis vesting. The docs say a portion of the tokens printed at the start vests to Protocol Labs teams and the Filecoin Foundation over six years, and to SAFT investors over three years. The page does not print the calendar day. CryptoBriefing, on October 11, 2026, put the Protocol Labs allocation at 300 million FIL and the Foundation allocation at 100 million FIL, and put the end on October 15, 2026, with roughly 66.7 to 68 million FIL a year of that vesting stopping. The Blockopedia, on October 12, 2026, put the code-based end on October 14, 2026, and the annual figure at about 68.3 million FIL. This page does not pick one of those two days. Simple minting and baseline minting are a different schedule. They do not stop because the six-year vest ends.

The Filecoin blog on February 19, 2026 said the final network vesting periods end later in 2026. It did not name the day.

Network upgrades. NV28, named Fire Horse, went live on mainnet on May 27, 2026. The project said contracts can then check whether a storage sector is active, how healthy it is, and when it expires. That upgrade has already happened. FIP-0118, called Solstice, was still a draft on July 17, 2026. The July post did not set an activation height.

Storage demand. Paid storage deals are the usage headline the 2026 strategy names. A deal announcement is a record of demand. It is not a supply date.

CoinGecko's markets response on October 12, 2026, 09:56 UTC, reported circulating supply of about 834.8 million. A maximum was not in that response. Total supply in the same row was about 1.96 billion. The 24-hour change in that row was about +13.3%.

Leverage. Perpetual markets can force liquidations that extend a move. Funding and open interest are not alert types until that feed is connected.

How much it usually moves

From October 13, 2025 through October 12, 2026, CoinGecko's daily USD series for filecoin produced 364 close-to-close changes. The method is in README.md.

The median absolute move was 2.5%. The 90th percentile day was 8.6%. The price moved at least 5% on 83 days, at least 3% on 159 days, and at least 10% on 27 days. The largest close-to-close change in the window was 80.3%. One daily point that large can be a thin print. The useful figure is the count.

About 1 day in 4 cleared 5%. A fixed "5% up or down" rule fires on a week that was ordinary for FIL in this window. The October vesting dates, if either report is the day the code uses, can land in a week that would have cleared 5% with no vest ending. An unusual-move alert uses Filecoin's own recent range.

A 5% move inside one hour is a different event from a 5% close-to-close day. This count does not measure the hourly case.

Example alerts

These are examples of wording. They are not recommendations, and they are not live prices. Terminal can run an unusual move, a percent move, a price level, or a volume spike. The note on an alert describes the move. It does not tell you what to do.

  1. Tell me when Filecoin (FIL) moves more than usual within an hour.
  2. Tell me when FIL moves more than usual within 24 hours.
  3. Tell me when FIL's volume is at least 3 times its 20-day average.

Leave the 24-hour rule on through October 15 if you are watching the vesting reports. Neither report sends the alert. The move does. An unusual-move alert waits 4 hours before it can fire again, unless you change that. A volume alert waits 1 hour by default.

Scheduled events as of October 12, 2026

NV28 is already live. It is not an upcoming date.

Sources

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