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What moves Celestia (TIA)

As of October 11, 2026. This page describes drivers that already have a public record, and dates that are already on a calendar. It is not investment advice. It does not say to buy, sell, or hold, and it does not forecast a price.

What typically drives the price

Unlocks on a published schedule. TIA is the token of Celestia, a data-availability network. Token generation was October 31, 2023. The cap on the Tokenomics.com schedule is 1 billion TIA, with the vesting model running toward September 30, 2027. A large cliff in late October 2024 is why traders still open the calendar. Later releases on that model have been smaller monthly amounts.

Tokenomics.com, read on October 11, 2026, lists the next unlock on October 31, 2026: 5,581,250 TIA, 0.6% of the 1 billion cap, tagged entirely as community. That is one calendar. It is not a reading of the vesting contract done for this page. A small release can still be the date someone watches. It is not a large cliff, and tokens becoming transferable is not a sale.

Demand for data availability. Applications that post data to Celestia, and changes to how that posting is priced, move attention to TIA. Those notes are upgrade and usage headlines. They do not share the unlock clock.

Leverage. TIA perpetual markets can force liquidations that extend a move. Funding and open interest are not alert types until that feed is connected. This page does not quote an inflation rate. Issuance beyond the vesting table was not confirmed from a primary source on October 11, 2026.

How much it usually moves

From October 12, 2025 through October 11, 2026, CoinGecko's daily USD series for celestia produced 364 close-to-close changes. The method is in README.md.

The median absolute move was 3.0%. The 90th percentile day was 8.7%. The price moved at least 5% on 96 days, at least 3% on 181 days, and at least 10% on 30 days. The largest close-to-close change in the window was 44.3%.

About 1 day in 4 cleared 5%. A fixed "5% up or down" rule fires on a week that was ordinary for TIA in this window. The October 31 row, if that calendar is right, is one date inside a coin that already clears 5% about once a week. An unusual-move alert uses Celestia's own recent range.

A 5% move inside one hour is a different event from a 5% close-to-close day. This count does not measure the hourly case.

Example alerts

These are examples of wording. They are not recommendations, and they are not live prices. Terminal can run an unusual move, a percent move, a price level, or a volume spike. The note on an alert describes the move. It does not tell you what to do.

  1. Tell me when Celestia (TIA) moves more than usual within an hour.
  2. Tell me when TIA moves more than usual within 24 hours.
  3. Tell me when TIA's volume is at least 3 times its 20-day average.

Leave the 24-hour rule on through October 31 if you are watching that calendar. The unlock does not send the alert. The move does. An unusual-move alert waits 4 hours before it can fire again, unless you change that. A volume alert waits 1 hour by default.

Scheduled events as of October 11, 2026

Sources

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